Why are we so obsessed with predicting the future?

By Pinwheel
BIG QUESTIONS

Why are we so obsessed with predicting the future?

As we approach another new threshold, we’re all desperate to know what’s on the other side. How will 2025 unfold? What’s going to change? We know predictions are mostly sparkly bullshit, but it’s still irresistible to our amygdalas. Unexpected events can be emotionally jarring, so predictions satisfy craving for control while giving our unstoppable pattern-noticing brains something to do. Unfortunately, according to research, our predictions are only slightly better than a coin toss. But even errors in prediction serve a purpose, as they help refine our decision-making and pattern-noticing models. Ultimately, predicting the future is less about being right and more about preparing for and navigating the complexities of life. It is, in a sense, a survival mechanism. This instinct spans everything from daily planning to existential questions about the future of humanity and the cosmos itself. Or just, you know, marketing trends – which we cover below. Enjoy!

2025 PREDICTIONS

2025 marketing spending patterns

The people at Neil Patel Digital surveyed 11,093 marketers to see how they plan to invest their dollars and what they plan to do with their budgets per channel in 2025. Here’s what they found:

  • Content Creation: 63% are increasing budgets to meet diverse format demands, human-led content preference, and podcast growth. Only 4% are decreasing budgets.
  • SEO: 44% plan to increase budgets, believing SEO remains effective despite AI’s impact. 97% investing in AI-focused SEO (e.g., ChatGPT). 17% plan to decrease budgets.
  • Organic Social: 58% are decreasing budget due to declining reach. 25% plan to increase budgets to boost brand awareness.
  • Email Marketing: 59% are maintaining their email budgets, while 28% are planning to increase it. 
DESIGN WE ❤️

Adobe Creative Trends 2025 Report

We’re all affected by the accelerating rate of change in technology and trends, and we in the creative industry are certainly no exception. Fads come and go, some stick and become culturally embedded, and others fade away (anybody else nostalgic for glossy, 3D buttons from the early days of the web?). We appreciate having a useful annual summary available from Adobe to help provide context and insight into how the creative landscape is evolving, and what to expect going into 2025. We’ll see you all in the fantastical frontier.

BEEP BOOP

2024 Roundup

As part of our ongoing quest to avoid being in the present moment, our second favorite thing to do at the end of a year as humans is to look back and summarize the “Best Of” various different categories of things for that year. So here’s a roundup of such things: 

WORD TO THE WISE

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

Peter Drucker, author, management consultant, “The man who invented management”

WHAT CLIENTS WANT

Content will become ubiquitous in 2025, like The Blob.

One thing is certain for 2025: companies will continue to use content to attract, engage and retain their audiences. The Content Marketing Institute released their leader-generated predictions for 2025 and there are a lot of them. Here are our favorites:

  • AI dominates everything: By now, you should know when to use AI and when not to. AI won’t take your job, but someone who knows AI will. So get out in front of that. 
  • Put your heart into it: To stand out in content marketing, be unmistakably human, emotionally-driven, and story-centric. 
  • Say goodbye to busywork: Congratulations, all your busywork will be automated. 
  • Search behavior will change: Search behavior will shift from keyword-based queries (like “ice cream, Portland”) to natural conversational questions (“Where can I have a client meeting with a vegan who’s lactose intolerant tomorrow at noon in Portland near the Marriott?”)
  • More video: We’re not done going full video, folks. Improved metadata extraction will make video content more discoverable, encouraging businesses to embed more video in cornerstone content for SEO. (By the way, Pinwheel can help you here ?) 
ICEBREAKER

What is your favorite holiday tradition?

Todd: “The Cousins Lunch” is a holiday tradition where all of my cousins (there are around 30 of them) get together at a Bay Area restaurant for a nice, big Italian-style lunch.

Melissa: We try to keep the gift giving to a minimum and follow the rule of 4: something you want, something you need, something to share and something to read. Or at least we try.

Laura: Getting to open a single package on Christmas Eve—with holiday pajamas inside—was one of the few traditions I brought with me from my own childhood and now my husband’s brothers and sister have joined in and so my daughter and her many cousins are all adorably matching on the night before the big day.

Jason: We are big on the Christmas Eve dinner. The kids are responsible for some part of the dinner such as making the main course, a side or dessert. 

Marielle: We’re in the middle of a tradition shift! Since high school- and college-age kids aren’t into the Santa stuff anymore, we’ve started a new tradition of getting up to Calistoga to float in the hot springs together on the eve of the Eve. It’s magical.

Sharon: My family plays Yut Nori, a traditional Korean board game, and the losing team has to buy dinner.

John: I grew up celebrating traditional Polish Christmas Eve, part of which includes a hearty beet soup called Barszcz, and it tastes much better than it’s pronounced, I promise.

FALLACIES, PARADOXES & THEORIES…OH MY

The Matthew Effect

First mentioned in the Bible’s Gospel of Matthew, this is the notion that people who start with an advantage (wealth, knowledge, or fame), tend to accumulate even more of that advantage over time. It’s far easier to build wealth when you already have wealth. Bestseller lists drive more sales to already-bestselling books. Popular voices on social media platforms (journalists, founders, celebrities, critics, etc.) are algorithmically recommended to new users more frequently which helps them grow their follower counts exponentially – crowding out interesting new voices. In short, the people who “make it” have it made. Always.

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